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Probabilistic Modelling: Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) in Generative Models

by Mia

Generative models learn patterns in data so they can assign probabilities to what they observe and, later, generate new samples that look realistic. Behind many modern generative systems—language models, some image models, and density estimators—sits a simple training idea: Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE). In plain terms, MLE trains a model to give the highest possible probability to the training data. If you are studying the foundations of generative modelling through gen AI training in Hyderabad, understanding MLE will help you make sense of why common losses look the way they do and how to evaluate model learning.

The Core Idea: Likelihood as “How Well the Model Explains Data”

Suppose you have a dataset of examples x1,x2,…,xnx_1, x_2, \dots, x_nx1​,x2​,…,xn​. A probabilistic model with parameters θ\thetaθ assigns a probability (or probability density) pθ(x)p_\theta(x)pθ​(x) to each example. The likelihood of the parameters θ\thetaθ given the dataset is:

L(θ)=∏i=1npθ(xi)L(\theta) = \prod_{i=1}^{n} p_\theta(x_i)L(θ)=i=1∏n​pθ​(xi​)MLE chooses parameters that maximise this likelihood:

θ∗=arg⁡max⁡θ∏i=1npθ(xi)\theta^* = \arg\max_{\theta} \prod_{i=1}^{n} p_\theta(x_i)θ∗=argθmax​i=1∏n​pθ​(xi​)Because multiplying many probabilities can underflow numerically, practitioners almost always maximise the log-likelihood instead:

θ∗=arg⁡max⁡θ∑i=1nlog⁡pθ(xi)\theta^* = \arg\max_{\theta} \sum_{i=1}^{n} \log p_\theta(x_i)θ∗=argθmax​i=1∑n​logpθ​(xi​)Maximising log-likelihood is equivalent to minimising negative log-likelihood (NLL). That NLL is the training loss you frequently see in generative modelling.

How MLE Shows Up in Different Generative Models

MLE is not a single algorithm; it is an objective that appears in different forms depending on the model family.

Autoregressive models (text and sequences)

For language models, a sequence xxx is broken into tokens (x1,x2,…,xT)(x_1, x_2, \dots, x_T)(x1​,x2​,…,xT​). The model factorises the probability using the chain rule:

pθ(x)=∏t=1Tpθ(xt∣x<t)p_\theta(x) = \prod_{t=1}^{T} p_\theta(x_t \mid x_{<t})pθ​(x)=t=1∏T​pθ​(xt​∣x<t​)Training maximises the log-likelihood of the next token given previous tokens. In practice, this becomes a cross-entropy loss where the model is rewarded for placing high probability on the actual next token in the training text. This is why “predict the next token” is not just a convenient task—it is an MLE objective in disguise.

Continuous-density models (simple example: Gaussian)

If the model assumes data comes from a Gaussian distribution with mean μ\muμ and variance σ2\sigma^2σ2, then MLE finds μ\muμ and σ2\sigma^2σ2 that best explain the observed samples. Even when modern neural models are more complex, the idea is similar: choose parameters so the data is likely under the model.

When likelihood is hard to compute

Some generative approaches do not provide a tractable likelihood. For example:

  • Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) maximise a related objective called the ELBO (Evidence Lower Bound), which is a practical proxy for likelihood.
  • Diffusion/score-based models often optimise objectives linked to score matching rather than directly computing pθ(x)p_\theta(x)pθ​(x) in a simple closed form.

Even in these cases, the spirit remains probabilistic: learn parameters that explain the data distribution well.

Why Maximising Likelihood Makes Sense Statistically

MLE has a clean interpretation: it makes the model’s distribution closer to the “true” data-generating distribution. Another way to view it is through cross-entropy and KL divergence. When you minimise negative log-likelihood on samples from the real data distribution, you are effectively pushing the model toward matching that distribution (within the constraints of the model class).

This is also why MLE is widely used: it is mathematically grounded, consistent under reasonable conditions, and works well with gradient-based optimisation. These are exactly the kinds of foundations reinforced during gen AI training in Hyderabad, where learners connect loss functions to the probabilistic assumptions underneath.

Practical Considerations: What MLE Gets Right and Where It Can Mislead

MLE has clear strengths, but it also comes with practical realities.

Strengths

  • Stable optimisation: NLL/cross-entropy losses are well-behaved for many architectures.
  • Clear evaluation metrics: likelihood-related measures such as perplexity (for language) are natural to compute when likelihood is available.
  • Useful for forecasting and completion tasks: models trained by MLE often excel at predicting missing or next-step information.

Limitations

  • Likelihood vs perceived quality: a model can achieve better likelihood without producing samples that humans judge as better. This is a known issue in some domains, especially when “average” predictions score well but look bland.
  • Mode coverage trade-offs: pure likelihood objectives can prefer spreading probability mass in ways that may not align with specific sampling goals.
  • Overfitting risk: like any training objective, MLE can overfit if the model is too flexible or training is not regularised.

To manage these, teams typically use validation sets, early stopping, regularisation, and careful sampling strategies—skills that become practical quickly when applying concepts from gen AI training in Hyderabad to real projects.

Conclusion

Maximum Likelihood Estimation is the backbone ofmany generative modelling pipelines. By training a model to assign the highest probability to observed data, MLE turns “learning patterns” into a precise optimisation objective: maximise log-likelihood (or minimise negative log-likelihood). While modern generative systems may use variants like ELBO or score-based objectives when likelihood is not directly tractable, the probabilistic mindset stays central. If you can explain MLE clearly and connect it to losses like cross-entropy, you are well on your way to building and evaluating generative models with confidence—and that is a core outcome many learners seek through gen AI training in Hyderabad.